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Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Dividend assets are expected to become the main investment line next year, and the investment in dividend plate is heating up! Standard & Poor's dividend ETF(562060) rallied. On December 13th, by midday, the standard & poor's dividend ETF(562060) had dropped by 1.58%, with a turnover of 18,545,900 yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed, and in terms of rising, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment leads the rise; In terms of decline, Yongxing Materials led the decline. In the news, on December 12th, official website of China Securities Regulatory Commission published the latest personal pension investment list, and 85 index funds were included, including 7 bonus index funds. In addition, the recent performance of high dividend assets is strong, and the market's investment enthusiasm for the dividend sector continues to heat up. The industry believes that dividend assets are expected to become the main line of investment next year with the downward trend of interest rates and the improvement of dividend yield. In addition, considering that there are still many uncertainties in the current global environment, the defensive nature of dividend assets may still be a safe haven for capital seeking. Faced with the long-term trend that domestic risk-free interest rates will continue to decline, the scarcity and stability of dividend income are expected to help dividend assets continue to serve as an important direction for long-term funds to seek cost performance.The strength of the policy is in line with expectations. The New Year's market may have started, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF South (159925) can be used as a key layout. On December 13th, as of midday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF South (159925) fell by 2%, with a turnover of 115 million yuan. The constituent stocks are mixed, and in terms of rising, Yangtze Power leads the rise; In terms of decline, Zijin Mining led the decline. In the news, from December 11th to 12th, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, which made a systematic plan for next year's economic work. Regarding the highlights of the meeting, CITIC Jiantou said that the meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference continued the main tone of the Politburo meeting on Monday, and made systematic arrangements for economic work next year. Next year's policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in an all-round way, and the policy strength and direction are in line with our expectations. With the support of policy expectation and liquidity, the current new year's market has been launched, and it is expected that the market will continue to show the characteristics of shock upward. Focus on industries: non-bank finance, real estate chain, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, building materials, steel, social services, catering chain, etc. Topics of concern: duality and innovation, supply-side optimization, new quality productivity, market value management of state-owned enterprises. You can use the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300ETF South (159925) to lay out the core assets with one click.

Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.According to CITIC Securities, it is necessary for deficit ratio to rise to nearly 4%, and mortgage interest rates is expected to fall further. According to Yicai, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing on December 11th and 12th. Regarding what it means to change the tone of fiscal policy from "positive" to "more positive", the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly said that I think it means that the whole fiscal policy will be further expanded next year. First of all, from the perspective of deficit ratio, our deficit ratio is 3% this year and 3% at the beginning of last year. However, we had a special budget adjustment at the end of last year, so the deficit ratio from the end of last year to the end of last year was actually 3.8%. Looking forward to next year, we think that the ratio that may be close to 4% should be the effect that everyone expects to achieve at present. In terms of monetary policy, we can see a series of monetary policies, including further relaxing some restrictions on purchase restriction and loan restriction, including the down payment ratio, and a particularly important one is to reduce the mortgage interest rates. I think these monetary policies will be further promoted in the future, and even further declined in mortgage interest rates, for example.Beijing officially launched the online game boutique publishing project. At the 2024 China Game Industry Annual Conference held today, Zhai Degang, deputy director of the Propaganda Department of Beijing Municipal Committee and director of Beijing Press and Publication Bureau, said that Beijing Press and Publication Bureau would organize the implementation of the online game boutique publishing project to guide and drive the high-quality development of Beijing's game industry. It is reported that the online game boutique publishing project will focus on five key directions: spreading positive mainstream values, carrying forward the spirit of Chinese culture, showing the style of the capital era, highlighting the vitality of scientific and technological innovation, and having the potential for international communication. Five supporting mechanisms including priority recommendation, whole-process incubation, copyright protection, platform service and talent guarantee mechanism will be implemented. The works selected for the project will be included in the Beijing online game key selection database, and priority will be given to the national-level promotion and selection projects, and incentives will be given.

Zhaochi Co., Ltd. invested in the business of optical communication equipment in the newly established technology company. According to the enterprise investigation APP, recently, Shanghai Jiashibai Technology Co., Ltd. was established, with the legal representative of Gu Wei and the registered capital of 20 million yuan. Its business scope includes: optical communication equipment manufacturing; Sales of optical communication equipment; Manufacturing of digital video monitoring system; Digital video monitoring system sales, etc. Enterprise survey shows that the company is wholly owned by Shenzhen Zhaochi Digital Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zhaochi Co., Ltd.Hezhou, Guangxi: It is planned to resume accepting applications for individual housing provident fund loans such as newly-built single-family commercial houses and townhouses. The Hezhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the Notice on Adjusting the Use Policy of Housing Provident Fund in this Municipality (draft for comments). The document also requires that the proportion and number of housing provident fund loans be optimized. The minimum down payment ratio for the first and second sets of housing provident fund loans is not less than 20%. The number of housing units applying for housing provident fund loans is determined according to the number of housing units of the applicant's family in the place of purchase (Babu District, Pinggui District, Zhongshan County, fuchuan county and Zhaoping County). Increase efforts to support the purchase of houses in different places and withdraw housing provident fund. Cancel the restrictions on the residence registration and work place for purchasing houses in different places. If the depositor of the housing provident fund in this city purchases self-occupied houses in different places, and the purchase time is within two years from the date of issuance of this notice, he may apply for the purchase of houses and withdraw the housing provident fund, and the total withdrawal amount shall not exceed the purchase price paid. If you have applied for a house purchase loan and repaid it for one year, you can apply for withdrawing the housing provident fund to repay the housing loan. The document also proposes to resume accepting applications for individual housing provident fund loans for newly-built single-family commercial houses, townhouses with low floors, townhouses with multi-floors and non-standard duplex houses.Hong Kong Treasury Bureau: It plans to conduct public consultation on the OTC trading of virtual assets and the licensing system for custody service providers next year. Chen Haolian, deputy director of the Financial Services and Treasury Bureau of the Hong Kong SAR Government, said that it plans to conduct public consultation on the OTC trading of virtual assets and the licensing system for custody service providers next year to promote the sustainable development of different sectors of the virtual asset market. At present, there are three licensed virtual asset trading platforms in Hong Kong, and the Hong Kong Treasury Bureau plans to submit a bill on the supervision system for the issuers of legal tender stable currency to the Legislative Council for deliberation within this month.